Agriculture will be transformed by climate change by 2050
Climate change will have an impact on agriculture in Europe in 2050. It was revealed by an international study published in Nature Communications, carried out in collaboration with the University of Florence.
The study, which involved researchers at the Department of Agrifood Production and Environmental Sciences of the University of Florence, showed that maize production will decrease whereas wheat production will increase, although only slightly, in 2050.
Ten simulation models applied on a large scale were used for the research. The study took into consideration possible effects of climate change, highlighting the influence of heat and drought stresses on crop yield variations.
Two of these models were used in Italy by the Agrometeorology and Modelling research group at the University of Florence, led by Marco Bindi, and by IBIMET-CNR to simulate the evolution of maize and wheat crops on the territory under different climate scenarios.
“The adaptation to climate change is crucial”, explained Bindi, “in terms of genetic improvement, irrigation management, use of new crops or adoption of insurance solutions against yield losses. Understanding that drought is the greatest risk to field herbaceous crops can help farmers and policymakers to identify the most appropriate adaptive option. And our study makes a considerable contribution to this”.
The research, coordinated by the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), is part of the European MACSUR project (Modeling European Agriculture with Climate Change for food Security).